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Friday, October 17, 2008

My Projection

This is my personal projection for the upcoming election. I know, I know...there are many things in flux right now. And there are numerous states that may go one way or the other -- I call those BiExual States.

A quick rundown and personal thoughts: Florida and North Carolina -- It's the South, folks. Think about it. It is not the year 2008 in many parts of our country. Missouri -- Nearly always goes Red and I will err on the side of the GOP, unfortunately. Virginia -- I'm giving it to the Dems this time around based on the sheer number of new Dems in the northern suburbs. Nevada and Colorado -- Again, history says they are going Red and I don't want to overinflate Obama's map. If he wins them, it'll be the icing on the cake. New Mexico -- I'm giving it to the Blue Boys. Ohio -- I think we all know that it's a big Red stronghold...again, I'm erring on the side of conservative. And my map projection doesn't require Ohio for Obama to win. Pennsylvania -- Blue Boys!

I follow the individual state polls carefully. I watch numbers of people moving in and out of individual counties. And I know full well that this nation believes we're headed in the wrong direction...and we are! But I also know that we are a nation of emotionally-driven people. We spout off. We're reactive, not responsive. We say we're going to do one thing and then do another -- and that's where things get scary with polls and such. Remember when we all thought that John Kerry had things wrapped up....and then the evening began to turn Red. Unfortunately. And there are several presidents that have turned around and won when the other guy had a double-digit lead. So, I'm being conservative in my projections. I've given Virginia and New Mexico to Obama....and hope he holds them. But the biggies like Florida and Ohio I'm keeping Red for now. In spite of the polls. I know how things can end up dramatically different than we expect. So, my excitement actually makes me feel good...that I am being pretty conservative and Obama STILL wins. And that makes me feel rreeeeeaaaallllyyyy good. My apologies for the map not being able to be seen completely....I wish I were more computer savvy, but I'm just not. I'm projecting Obama with 277 electoral votes and McCain with 261....you can't see that on the map, unfortunately.


Allogenes said...

Thanks for the research. I can't imagine my home state (New York) will vote for McCain, but I'm going to cast my ballot for Obama just to be sure.

Anonymous said...

Hoping Obama will come out on top -- like you predict! But I'm also hoping we see more blue on that map, too!

__from an Obama fan in the South! ;)

Keith said...

My conservative (if you'll pardon the expression) projection is Obama 286--the same as yours, but with Colorado thrown in. I don't think there's any doubt about Colorado going blue this time.

Obama also looks very strong in at least six other formerly red states--Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, North Dakota, and North Carolina. I think he'll win some, but probably not all, of those. So my liberal election projection is Obama 353.

Brad said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Brad said...

If Obama does indeed take Virginia, I'll be able to uncork the champange, brcause at that point it's game, set and match. If he doesn't, it'll be a longer, nail-biting kind of night.
(Previous comment deleted for typos.)

Wayne said...

Let's keep our fingers crossed!

Anonymous said...

It's amazing how the electoral vote goes when you look at your map. It's like all I see is red. And I have to ask myself, "How can that be? And it all comes done to those electoral votes. It was interesting to hear about Virginia, both from you and the news media. They have always said it has ALWAYS been a deep red state. As others have stated, "Keeping fingers crossed."